IMF sees primary budget surplus at 2.1% of GDP

The International Monetary Fund forecasts a primary surplus of 2.1% of GDP for Greece this year and a decrease in public debt by 10 percentage points to 158.8% of GDP in its report on fiscal developments (Fiscal Monitor).

The primary surplus is expected to remain at 2.1% of GDP until 2029 which is the time frame of the Fund’s forecasts. If interest rates on public debt are taken into account, a government budget deficit of 0.9% of GDP is forecast this year, which will gradually rise to 1.4% in 2029.

In the eurozone as a whole, a primary deficit of 1.2% of GDP is expected this year, which will gradually decrease to 0.2% in 2029, while the overall fiscal deficit is projected to fall from 3.5% to 2.3%, respectively.

The primary surpluses will allow for a steady decrease in Greece’s public debt in the coming years, with its level falling to 138.8% of GDP in 2029.

In the same year, the eurozone’s public debt is projected to be slightly reduced to 87.7% of GDP from 88.6% in 2023.

General government revenues are projected to fall gradually from 46.8% of GDP this year to 43.7% in 2029, while general government spending will decrease from 47.7% to 45.1%, respectively.