Greece is facing a deep and accelerating demographic shift that has moved beyond theoretical projections and is now reshaping the economic and social fabric of the country. The aging population, combined with a steadily declining birth rate and sustained emigration of skilled labor, is putting immense pressure on the pension system, the labor market, and public finances.
According to the Hellenic Statistical Authority, from 2008 to 2024, the number of people aged 30–44 dropped by approximately 683,000, while citizens aged over 65 increased by more than 405,000. Overall, the population aged 15–74has declined by over 8.5%, significantly shrinking the country’s productive base.
The ratio of working-age individuals to pensioners has now fallen to 1.7 to 1, far below the sustainability threshold of 2.5 to 1, making the current social security model increasingly unsustainable.
Births Down, Deaths Rising
In 2023, Greece recorded just 76,000 births – nearly 40% fewer than in 2000, when births surpassed 127,000. Meanwhile, annual deaths have exceeded 135,000, and the natural population balance remains negative. Even after the COVID-19 pandemic, the death rate continues to rise due to population aging.
The European Commission forecasts that by 2030, Greece’s old-age dependency ratio – the number of people aged 65+ relative to the working-age population – will reach 46%, compared to a 42% EU average. This means fewer workers are supporting more retirees, increasing the burden on healthcare, pensions, and welfare services.
Migration and Education: Mixed Outcomes
Despite recent positive net migration, the percentage of foreign nationals in Greece’s population has dropped to 3% in 2024, down from 6.5% in 2008. The economic crisis and lack of integration policies prompted many migrants to leave the country, and new inflows have not offset the demographic losses.
On the education front, 40.2% of Greeks now hold a university degree – close to the EU average. However, the brain drain remains a persistent issue: since 2010, over 500,000 highly skilled professionals have left Greece in search of better opportunities abroad. This deprives the country of the innovation and expertise needed for long-term economic transformation.
Urgent Reforms Needed
The current demographic trends require bold and immediate policy action. Adjusting retirement ages, increasing female, youth, and disability employment, and aligning migration policies with labor market needs are all vital steps for safeguarding pension system viability and economic resilience.
A comprehensive national strategy should include:
- Incentives for family formation and childbirth (e.g., housing support, tax benefits),
- Reintegration of skilled professionals from the diaspora,
- Upskilling and lifelong learning programs, and
- Targeted attraction and integration of skilled migrants.
Greece’s demographic decline is no longer a distant concern — it is a present and escalating crisis. Without strategic planning and coordinated reforms, the pressure on the pension system and public services will continue to rise, threatening social cohesion and fiscal stability.
The time to act is now.
Source: pagenews.gr