Ratification of the Turkey-Libya Maritime Deal: A New Risk for Greece

The controversial Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum, signed in 2019 between Ankara and the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), has returned to the spotlight. According to Bloomberg, the House of Representatives in Eastern Libya is now considering ratifying the agreement — a move that would formally activate it and intensify tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly for Greece.

A change in stance from Haftar’s camp

At the time of its signing, the Haftar-led faction in Eastern Libya had categorically rejected the memorandum. However, in recent months, a noticeable shift in tone has emerged through various public statements by officials aligned with the Eastern Libyan leadership.

This potential policy reversal suggests a growing openness toward Ankara’s influence, despite longstanding opposition to Turkish involvement in Libya’s internal affairs.

Athens on high alert

The Greek government is closely monitoring these developments, as they carry significant implications not only for regional stability but also for migration management across the Mediterranean.

Turkey’s diplomatic efforts in Libya are part of a broader geopolitical strategy to expand its footprint in the Eastern Mediterranean, a region where maritime boundaries and energy resources are hotly contested. Ankara is also pursuing a rapprochement with Egypt, adding another layer of complexity to the regional equation.

Internal divisions in Libya and Ankara’s positioning

According to diplomatic sources, Khalifa Haftar was notably displeased after being excluded from a recent Turkey–Italy–Libya trilateral summit in Istanbul. The meeting included the prime minister of the Tripoli-based government, which Eastern Libya views as a political rival.

The absence of Eastern Libyan representation was interpreted as a clear indication that Turkey continues to recognize Tripoli as its primary partner, causing friction within Libya’s already fragmented political landscape. Some analysts believe that internal rivalries may be delaying the ratification of the maritime agreement — at least for now.

What would ratification mean for Greece?

The critical question remains: How would Turkey act if the Eastern Libyan parliament formally ratifies the agreement? Would Ankara attempt to enforce the maritime boundaries claimed in the deal — especially in areas south of Crete?

Such a scenario would present a direct challenge to Greek sovereignty. The 2019 memorandum has been condemned by the European Union, the United States, Egypt, and others, as it violates international law and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

Another fragile balance in the region

In a time of increasing geopolitical volatility, the prospect of the Turkey-Libya deal gaining official recognition from both sides in Libya poses a serious strategic threat to Greece.

Athens must intensify its diplomatic engagement — both with factions in Libya and with its international allies — to prevent the establishment of new faits accomplis in the Eastern Mediterranean by Ankara.

Source: pagenews.gr