ECB succession scenarios: Lagarde, Stournaras, and European power moves

Lagarde and the Power of the ECB For most observers, the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt is the cathedral of the euro—where monetary policy, interest rates, financial cycles, and banking supervision are strictly determined, independent of national governments. The ECB’s decisions strongly influence economic policies across the eurozone, guiding the adherence to rules that protect the stability and credibility of the single currency.

Within the ECB, officials defend the institution’s independence passionately, avoid political statements, and focus on controlling inflation. Yet the influence of the Governing Council and its members on national economic policies is significant.

Politically Experienced LeadersECB leadership is rarely politically neutral. Historical examples include:

• Mario Draghi, former ECB President, who governed Italy during political deadlock.
• Lucas Papademos, former ECB Vice President, who led Greece through its financial crisis in 2011.
• Olli Rehn, Finnish former European Commissioner and ECB board member, who sought the Finnish presidency.
• Luis de Guindos, former Spanish Finance Minister, now ECB Vice President.

Even Christine Lagarde, ECB President, is no political novice. She served as French Finance Minister (2007–2011) during Nicolas Sarkozy’s presidency and the global financial crisis and considered assuming the French premiership, though she ultimately declined.

Succession SpeculationSpeculation suggests that after her ECB term, Lagarde might run for the French presidency, particularly if Emmanuel Macron steps aside—though she categorically rejects this scenario. Lagarde has two more years at the ECB, and her mandate appears secure.

Meanwhile, Frankfurt insiders are already discussing potential successors. A leading candidate is Pablo Hernández de Cos, former head of the Spanish central bank, now General Director of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Basel. De Cos is recognized as a high-level economist and plays a critical role amid geopolitical tensions and global trade conflicts, including repercussions from U.S. tariffs under Donald Trump, the weakening of the dollar, and China’s efforts to reduce dependency on the dollar.

Sturnaras and Greece’s RoleIn June 2026, Luis de Guindos will leave his ECB vice presidency, creating a potential opening. Greek Central Bank Governor Yannis Sturnaras is reportedly considered, though he prefers to seek a third six-year term at the Bank of Greece, which ends in June 2026.

Sturnaras has increased his interventions and visibility, including hosting German central banker Joachim Nagel in Athens, whose praise at the Greek Industrialists’ Association underscored progress in the Greek economy.

Sturnaras remains non-committal on ECB ambitions, and the decision will depend on Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who has yet to publicly comment.

Other Potential Candidates in GreecePotential successors for the Governor of the Bank of Greece include:

• Christina Papakonstantinou, current Deputy Governor
• Th. Skylakakis, former Deputy Finance Minister

Despite speculation, Sturnaras remains the frontrunner, especially since he does not plan to pursue an ECB vice presidency. Historical precedent indicates Mitsotakis may avoid supporting two Greeks for simultaneous ECB positions, maintaining strategic alignment with European institutions.

Timing and ContextLagarde’s mandate ends summer 2027, by which time Greek national elections results will be known, potentially shaping decisions on ECB representation and Greece’s influence in European monetary policy.