Papachelas: ND at a Crossroads – Survival of Its Core Base and Governmental Power at Stake

Social and Political Decline

New Democracy (ND) faces a critical phase, as Alexis Papachelas points out, with its political authority threatened by social delegitimization and internal conflicts. Internal party disputes, which were previously manageable due to the anti-SYRIZA consensus, now offer little political value, functioning instead as “shadow duels” that alienate citizens from the political process.

The party’s weakening is not accidental. It reflects a deeper rightward shift in public opinion, combined with a weakened centrist and center-left space. As a result, ND risks losing its role as the mainstay of governmental authority, unless it adapts swiftly.

Historical Dynamics and Internal Balances

Over the past six years, ND has largely avoided major internal crises, thanks to two key factors:

1. The unifying anti-SYRIZA momentum: Different factions were united under Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ leadership, understanding that cohesion was essential to defeat SYRIZA.
2. Mitsotakis’ triangulation strategy: By appealing to traditional ND supporters, the popular right, and centrist political “refugees,” the party created a broad electoral coalition.

However, the second term fatigue has set in, and part of ND’s historic base is becoming alienated. Recent polls indicate:

• 35–38% support for the center-right, fragmented across traditional ND and smaller right-wing movements.
• 20–22% of centrist voters expressing skepticism about government decisions.
• 10–12% abstention or undecided voters, mainly from ND’s gray zones.

This social shift poses a critical challenge: ND must consolidate its base while maintaining central political authority.

The Challenge of the Next Elections

Papachelas emphasizes that the key question is whether ND can maintain sufficient electoral weight to remain the mainstay of the next government.

Crucial point: ND can no longer govern alone. Its political power depends on coalition partnerships, primarily with parties to its right, without losing the center.

Coalition scenarios include:

• Partnerships with small- to medium-sized right-wing parties: Ensures a governing majority but limits policy flexibility.
• Inclusion of centrist allies: Requires careful strategy to prevent disaffection and voter erosion.

Reordering the Political Map

Papachelas identifies two major axes of concern:

1. Achieving political stability: How can ND remain the core of government in a fragmented party landscape?
2. Reshaping the socio-political map: The rightward shift of public opinion and increasing gray zones of voter indecision demand strategic consolidation, or ND risks losing cohesion.

The failure to address these gray zones, i.e., disillusioned or alienated ND voters, could lead to abstention or migration to smaller parties, undermining the party’s core strength.

Social Trends and Rightward Shift

Society has moved to the right, intensified by fatigue from the second term and the lack of a credible centrist or center-left opposition.

Recent polls indicate:

• 35–38% center-right support, fragmented across traditional ND and new right-wing movements.
• 20–22% centrist voters hesitant about government policies.
• 10–12% undecided or abstaining voters, primarily from ND gray zones.

ND must decode these trends, retain its base, and regain political initiative.

The Stake of Governmental Authority

ND’s survival as a political force depends on:

1. Coalition scenarios: Partnerships with parties to the right to secure a parliamentary majority.
2. Rebuilding its base: Engaging both centrist and traditional right-wing voters.
3. Political and social stability: Avoiding erratic moves that deepen voter disaffection.

Failure in these areas risks prolonged political instability, with multiple small parties unable to form a coherent government.

Communication and Strategy as Key Tools

Papachelas stresses that beyond internal balance, ND must communicate effectively with society to prevent alienation and voter loss.

• Policies that impact citizens’ daily lives are essential.
• Re-consolidating the center is crucial for ND to maintain its political dominance.
• Clear coalition strategies with right-wing parties must be viable and credible to avoid instability.

A Political Puzzle Ahead

ND stands at a historical crossroads. The next phase will hinge on three factors:

1. Rebuilding the social base.
2. Forming stable coalition partnerships.
3. Maintaining the center as an electoral safety net.

As Papachelas notes, how these objectives are achieved is a high-stakes political puzzle. Failure could lead to prolonged instability, fragmented politics, and an inability to govern effectively in a complex international environment.

ND must move with strategy, realism, and speed, to retain political authority, secure a governing majority, and restore public trust. The next election will not only test electoral percentages but also effectiveness, stability, and leadership capacity.

Source: pagenews.gr