The situation surrounding the GSI subsea cable has reached a critical point, with Turkey exploiting every gap and effectively setting the terms of geopolitical balance in the Eastern Mediterranean. Despite declarations of independence and strategic initiative, Greece and Cyprus appear forced to seek international “guarantees” and foreign investors for the project to move forward.
Turkey: From Challenge to Monopoly
Ankara, with its continuous presence in the Aegean and the Cypriot EEZ, has coerced its neighbors into rethinking their strategy. By sending warships and interfering in research operations, Turkey has effectively frozen any Greek-led plans that do not have its consent.
Greece and Cyprus in Search of an International “House”
The strategy Athens and Nicosia seem to adopt includes:
- Diversifying the investment structure to limit China’s influence through State Grid’s control of ADMIE.
- Attracting American and European companies to activate security guarantees for the project.
- Updating the core parameters of the GSI with new techno-economic studies, which essentially freeze the project to create political space.
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides agreed yesterday to strengthen the participation of powerful investors, openly acknowledging their inability to impose their will against Turkey.
The American and European Factor
Now on the table are the US Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and the French fund Meridiem, while the Greek government is seeking “houses” to conduct new geopolitical and techno-economic risk studies. In other words, the GSI now needs international “fingerprints” to move forward.
The Real Implication
With Turkey controlling the pace and China holding key Greek nodes, Greece and Cyprus are implicitly admitting their weakness. The entire process, with updates and searches for foreign capital, is effectively a recognition of failure and a move of “strategic retreat under cover.”
The GSI, originally intended to enhance Greece and Cyprus’ strategic energy independence, now shows that real power lies in the hands of third countries, with Turkey clearly enjoying the advantage.