How a US–Ukraine Rift Could Threaten Greece’s LNG Strategy

Athens at the center of a fragile new energy system

Greece finds itself in a strategic paradox: while it rapidly strengthens its role as a key energy gateway for Europe, it is simultaneously exposed to a geopolitical fault line it cannot control — the escalating tension between the United States and Ukraine.

The recent energy agreement between Greece and Ukraine, involving the transport of US LNG through Greek infrastructure, is now overshadowed by President Trump’s mounting pressure on Kyiv and his threat to withdraw military and intelligence support. President Zelenskyy has warned that if Washington drops its backing, existing deals on minerals, payments, and energy corridors will collapse.

For Greece, this is not a distant dispute — it represents a direct geo-economic threat.

Greece’s strategic bet: From regional player to energy crossroads

Over the past years, Athens has invested heavily in becoming an energy hub for Southeastern and Central Europe:

• LNG terminals in Revithoussa & Alexandroupolis
• The Vertical Corridor (Greece–Bulgaria–Romania–Hungary–Ukraine)
• New FSRUs and upgraded gas interconnectors
• Modernization of electricity and gas transmission networks

The DEPA–Naftogaz agreement to channel American LNG to Ukraine via Greece cements Athens’ geopolitical weight and demonstrates the success of its energy diplomacy.

But this success remains vulnerable to developments far beyond Athens’ control.

How a US–Ukraine rupture could threaten Greece’s energy architecture

1. LNG flow disruptions & loss of strategic credibility

If Washington freezes its framework with Kyiv, the tripartite LNG supply chain — US LNG → Greece → Ukraine — could collapse.

This would shake the core of Greece’s energy plans:

• The viability of the Vertical Corridor
• FSRU utilization rates
• Long-term investment logic in Greek LNG infrastructure

2. Rising instability in Eastern European energy demand

Greece’s growing influence stems from providing secure alternatives to Russian gas for the region. But if Ukraine enters a period of political-energy turmoil, due to broken ties with the US, regional demand patterns could shift abruptly — affecting Greek infrastructure and transit revenues.

3. Possible pressure from Brussels on Athens

The EU views Greece as a critical stabilizer of Europe’s gas supply. In a crisis, Brussels may push Athens to bear more responsibility in buffering supply shocks — economically and politically.

4. Global LNG price volatility

Any geopolitical shock involving the US and Ukraine drives:

• Higher LNG spot prices
• Increased procurement costs for Greek importers
• Repricing of long-term LNG contracts

Such dynamics could undermine Greece’s energy-cost stability and competitiveness.

Opportunities hidden within the crisis

Despite the risks, Greece can extract strategic benefits:

• Positioning as Europe’s “anchor of stability” for Ukraine and the region
• Negotiating stronger LNG terms with the US, given Greece’s elevated importance
• Attracting additional FSRU and pipeline investment to reinforce Europe’s energy security
• Strengthening its role within NATO as an energy-security hub

Handled correctly, the crisis could turn into a geopolitical dividend for Athens.

The emerging energy architecture — still strong, still fragile

Greece is now central to a transformative re-routing of energy flows in Europe. Its strategic future depends on:

• Remaining the core LNG gateway into Eastern Europe
• Supporting the region’s shift away from Russian gas
• Expanding its geopolitical relevance

But the potential US–Ukraine rift is a stark reminder: the new energy architecture is promising, yet still fragile.

Greece must move forward with realism, diplomatic agility, and strategic flexibility — ensuring that its energy ambitions are not held hostage by Washington’s calculations or Moscow’s leverage

Source: pagenews.gr