Greek banks are back in the spotlight for global investors, as top financial institutions—including UBS, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Jefferies—upgrade their forecasts and price targets for 2026.
Reports highlight that the banking sector is entering a new profitability cycle, driven by:
- Credit expansion (corporate & mortgage loans)
- Improved asset quality (NPE reduction)
- Stabilizing interest rates and high spreads
- Bancassurance growth, following moves by Piraeus Bank and Eurobank
The UBS calls Greek banks “among the most attractive in Europe for 2026,” noting robust credit growth, high spreads, and undervaluation versus European peers. Piraeus Bank emerges as the top pick, with a price target of €9.20, while Eurobank and Alpha Bank remain strong plays at €4.20 and €4.30, respectively.
Bank of America highlights double-digit EPS growth and a 10% discount vs. European peers, emphasizing the exceptional investment opportunity. Eurobank stands out for its high ROTE and diversified profile, while Piraeus and Alpha Bank benefit from credit expansion and earnings momentum.
Bancassurance: The Next Profit Engine
Jefferies identifies the insurance sector as a major growth driver, noting that Greece remains below European averages in insurance penetration (2.3% of GDP vs. ~5% in Southern Europe).
- Piraeus Bank: With the acquisition of Ethniki Insurance, it now holds the second-largest market share, boosting EPS +5% and ROTE +1%.
- Eurobank: Expands life insurance footprint via 80% of Eurolife in Greece, expecting EPS +5% and RoTBV +100 bps.
- Alpha Bank: Maintains a stable bancassurance channel with Generali.
- National Bank of Greece: CET1 at 19%, allowing new strategic partnerships or insurance acquisitions.
Goldman Sachs: Resilient Fundamentals, Attractive Valuations
Goldman Sachs highlights steady profitability, improving asset quality, and a supportive macro environment.
- Alpha Bank: Buy, price target €4.20
- National Bank: Buy, price target €15.10
- Piraeus Bank: Buy, price target €8.00
- Eurobank: Neutral, price target €3.50
Despite a slight ~1.5% shortfall in net profits due to weaker trading, core operating trends remain robust. Net interest income (NII) has likely bottomed, with gradual recovery expected from Q4 2025, supported by corporate loan growth and normalization of interest margins. Risk costs remain low, and capital adequacy is strong, with CET1 around 17%.
Forecasted ROTE stands at 14% for 2025–2027, slightly below the Eurozone average, highlighting quality performance. Valuations are attractive, trading at 1.2x tangible book value for 2026 vs. 1.4x European peers.
Significant Upside for 2026
Greek banks combine strong profitability, low valuations, and solid capital buffers, creating a compelling investment story for 2026 and beyond. Analysts expect:
- Interest spreads to support net interest income
- Continued credit growth, especially corporate and mortgage loans
- Bancassurance to boost profit-before-tax
- Sufficient capital for acquisitions and shareholder returns
Overall, Greek banks present an excellent risk/reward profile and remain prime targets for international investors seeking undervalued European banking opportunities.