Somaliland shakes geopolitics: Israel’s recognition, global sea lanes at stake and Erdoğan’s growing unease

A quiet corner of Africa has suddenly moved to the very center of global geopolitics. Somaliland, a de facto independent region since 1991, has emerged as a new strategic hotspot after Israel became the first country to formally recognize it. What may appear as a technical diplomatic move is, in reality, a high-impact geopolitical signal with consequences stretching from the Middle East to Europe and Asia.

This is not about symbolism. It is about control, access and influence.

A choke point the world cannot ignore

Somaliland sits astride the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the narrow maritime gateway linking the Indian Ocean with the Red Sea and, ultimately, the Suez Canal. Roughly one of the world’s most vital trade and energy corridors passes through these waters. Any political or military shift here instantly reverberates across global supply chains, energy markets and naval balances.

In an era marked by Houthi attacks, regional wars and disrupted shipping, geography has once again become destiny.

Why Israel moved first

By recognizing Somaliland, Israel secures a strategic foothold at the southern entrance of the Red Sea. This strengthens its surveillance, intelligence and maritime security reach at a time when threats from Iran-aligned actors are rising. It also fits neatly into Israel’s broader post–Abraham Accords strategy: expanding diplomatic depth beyond the Middle East and into Africa.

Behind closed doors, diplomats acknowledge that Somaliland offers something rare: relative stability in a volatile region, a functioning local administration and a coastline of immense strategic value.

Erdoğan’s unease and Turkey’s dilemma

Ankara did not miss the message. Turkey has invested heavily in Somalia, maintaining military bases, development projects and political influence. The Israeli move is therefore seen in Ankara as a direct challenge to its ambitions in the Horn of Africa.

For President Erdoğan, Somaliland’s recognition threatens to dilute Turkey’s regional leverage, complicate its relations with Muslim-majority countries and weaken its narrative as a dominant power across Africa and the Red Sea basin. Turkish analysts increasingly describe the move as part of a wider geopolitical encirclement.

Africa reacts, cautiously but firmly

The African Union, alongside Somalia and several regional states, has expressed clear opposition, warning that recognition undermines the principle of territorial integrity. Yet, privately, African diplomats admit that Somaliland’s case is unique: it has operated independently for over three decades, with its own institutions, elections and security apparatus.

This creates a quiet paradox: political reality versus diplomatic orthodoxy.

The bigger picture

What we are witnessing is not an isolated diplomatic event, but a rehearsal for a larger global realignment. As major powers compete for ports, sea lanes and influence, unrecognized or semi-recognized entities become valuable chess pieces.

Somaliland today is what other strategic crossroads were yesterday: overlooked until the moment they became indispensable.

The message is unmistakable. Geopolitics is no longer about size or recognition alone. It is about location, timing and the willingness to move first. And in the Red Sea–Horn of Africa nexus, the game has clearly entered a new and far more volatile phase.

Source: pagenews.gr