Stournaras: Greek Banks Enter 2026 Strong, but Geopolitical Risks Loom

Yet the message was clear: the year ahead carries significant downside risks, primarily from geopolitical uncertaintyand structural challenges in Europe.

Banks in a rebuilt, investable position

Stournaras highlighted the dramatic improvement in fundamentals over the past decade:

• Capital adequacy ratio: from ~13% in 2009 to 20.4% in September 2025, well above regulatory minimums
• Non-performing loans (NPLs): from nearly 7% in 2016 to just 1.8%, freeing up capital for lending
• Return on equity (RoE): 10.7% in the first nine months of 2025, approaching European averages

«Έχουμε μπροστά μας έναν κύκλο ενάρετης ανατροφοδότησης μεταξύ οικονομίας, δημοσιονομικής πειθαρχίας και τραπεζικού συστήματος», he said, linking banking health directly to Greece’s macroeconomic recovery.

Downside risks: geopolitics and market volatility

Despite domestic strength, Stournaras warned that external risks could disrupt growth:

• Ongoing geopolitical conflicts
• Rising trade tensions and tariffs
• Increasing market volatility and funding costs

These factors, he noted, could affect banks’ portfolios and borrowing conditions, requiring vigilance from both markets and policymakers.

The euro’s global limits

The Governor also addressed the international position of the euro, noting that while the macroeconomic backdrop in Europe is positive, he is “not fully satisfied” with its global reserve role.

This reflects the limits of European monetary power in a world of geopolitical competition and increasing currency fragmentation.

A dual message

Stournaras’ intervention sends a double signal:

• To markets: Greek banks now have strong fundamentals, comparable or superior to pre-crisis levels
• To policymakers: vigilance is essential; 2026 is not a year for complacency, but a period for managing external shocks while sustaining fiscal and financial stability

In short, the Greek banking sector enters the year shielded and profitable, but the external environment remains a test of resilience.

Sources: Bank of Greece, The Economist – “The World Ahead 2026: Athens Gala Dinner”