WAR, OIL AND MARKETS: Global relief rally erupts – explosive rebound in the Greek stock market

The global investment community appears eager to seize even the smallest sign of optimism amid the turmoil of war in the Middle East. Despite ongoing military operations and the shutdown of major refining facilities in the Persian Gulf, international stock markets staged a powerful relief rally, fueled by hopes that the conflict could end sooner than initially feared.

The shift in sentiment came after statements by Donald Trump, who suggested the war with Iran “could end fairly soon.” Even though geopolitical uncertainty remains extremely high, markets reacted immediately, pricing in the possibility of a faster de-escalation and easing fears of a prolonged global energy shock.

From panic to rebound: global markets change direction

Just days earlier, financial markets were gripped by intense volatility. Concerns about energy supply disruptions and the possibility of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had sent oil prices soaring above $100 per barrel, triggering sharp losses in global equities.

At the same time, several refineries and LNG facilities in the Gulf temporarily halted operations amid escalating military tensions, raising alarms over global energy security and the stability of supply chains.

However, financial markets operate on expectations rather than current realities. The mere possibility of a shorter conflict was enough to spark a sharp reaction.

• Asian markets rebounded strongly, recovering part of the heavy losses recorded earlier in the week.
• European stock indices closed with gains of up to 3%.
• On Wall Street, the major indices moved moderately higher, gaining around 0.67%.

Oil prices also retreated sharply as the geopolitical risk premium began to ease, providing additional support to global equities.

Explosive rebound in the Greek stock market

Within this improving international environment, the Athens Stock Exchange recorded one of its strongest sessions in recent months.

After losing 6.81% during the first week of the war and dropping another 2.27% the previous day, the market responded with a powerful rebound.

The General Index opened with a strong upward gap and quickly reached 2,194.69 points (+4.38%), before closing at 2,178.76 points, posting a 3.62% gain.

Key indices followed a similar trajectory:

• FTSE 25: +3.88% to 5,542.93 points
• Mid Cap: +1.76% to 2,634.04 points
• Banking Index: +5.90% to 2,448.68 points

Trading activity surged, with total turnover reaching €327.76 million, reflecting renewed investor interest and aggressive repositioning by institutional players.

Banks lead the recovery

Banking stocks, which had suffered the sharpest losses since the start of the war, led the rebound with impressive gains.

Top performers included:

• Optima Bank: +9.27%
• Piraeus Bank: +7.67%
• National Bank of Greece: +6.10%
• Bank of Cyprus: +5%
• Alpha Bank: +4.92%
• Eurobank: +4.46%

The strong rebound reflects both the sector’s earlier overselling and its high sensitivity to geopolitical risk and macroeconomic expectations.

Strong gains across blue chips

Major industrial and infrastructure stocks also posted significant gains, reinforcing the breadth of the rally.

Standout performers included:

• Cenergy Holdings: over +7%
• Viohalco: +7.34%
• Athens International Airport: +6.03%

Other companies such as Sarantis, Aegean Airlines, Aktor, ElvalHalcor, Titan, Metlen, GEK Terna, and Coca-Cola HBC also recorded solid advances.

The only notable loser in the large-cap segment was Motor Oil, which had recently reached new all-time highs after benefiting from rising energy prices.

Mid-cap stocks join the rally

The rally extended to the mid-cap segment as well.

Profile Software stood out with a 7.60% surge, confirming the resilience of technology companies even during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.

Other notable gainers included:

• Ellaktor: +5.44%
• Intracom Holdings: above +4%
• AustriaCard: above +4%
• AVAX: above +4%
• Ideal Holdings and Qualco: above +3%

Across the entire market, 128 stocks closed higher while only 10 declined, highlighting the breadth and strength of the recovery.

Markets are betting on the “good scenario”

The latest rally highlights a fundamental rule of financial markets:

Investors trade the future, not the present.

Despite:

• ongoing military operations,
• disruptions to key energy infrastructure,
• and the persistent risk of a global energy crisis,

markets appear eager to price in the possibility of a relatively short conflict.

Still, history shows that during periods of geopolitical tension, market sentiment can shift dramatically within hours. For now, the rally reflects optimism—but volatility is likely to remain a defining feature of global markets in the weeks ahead.

Source: pagenews.gr