UBS Ranks Greece Among Most Vulnerable to Trump’s US Tariffs

In its July 15 report, UBS, a Swiss multinational financial services firm, examines the potential direct and indirect impacts of the 30% tariffs proposed by Donald Trump, which are set to take effect on August 1.

UBS identifies Greece as one of the three European countries most exposed to the new tariff regime, based on the share of its exports to the US affected. These exports span sectors where Greece excels, including chemicals, pharmaceuticals, agricultural products, and processed industrial goods. Notably, the proposed tariffs offer no exemptions or tiered rates.

Most Affected Countries

The countries with the highest proportion of US exports impacted by the tariffs are:

• Group A: Czech Republic, Poland, Turkey (~90% of exports affected)
• Group B: Hungary, Greece, United Arab Emirates (60–75% affected)

Other nations are expected to experience minimal disruption. UBS simulations suggest a hypothetical 10% tariff hike would hit the Czech Republic and Hungary hardest (25–30 basis points GDP reduction), followed by Poland and Greece (15–20 basis points), and Turkey and the UAE (10 basis points). Other countries face impacts below 10 basis points.

Structural Challenges for Greece

As an EU member, Greece is limited in its ability to independently negotiate trade exemptions or rollbacks, thereby reducing its flexibility. The small size of most Greek export firms further complicates their ability to make rapid adjustments to logistics or sales strategies.

Greece’s export base, heavily concentrated in food, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals, is particularly susceptible to broad trade restrictions. While the US is not a primary trade partner, it is a vital market for Greece’s niche, high-value products.

UBS notes Greece’s ability to adapt hinges on:

• The EU’s success in securing targeted exemptions,
• The speed at which Greek firms can shift to alternative markets (e.g., Asia or the Middle East),
• The ability of companies to increase the value-added component of products to minimize tariff exposure or gain strategic exemptions.

Moderate Impact in 2025, Growing by 2026

UBS forecasts a -0.1% GDP impact for Greece in 2025, escalating to -0.15% in 2026, positioning Greece as moderately vulnerable among EMEA emerging markets. The economic drag will likely be indirect, stemming from weakened manufacturing and exports, leading to reduced domestic demand and investment. Declining export revenues may also erode profits for Greek manufacturers with exposure to the US market.

Greek GDP Outlook Through 2027

UBS projects Greece’s GDP growth at 2.6% in 2025, 2.3% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027, which is expected to be slowed by external pressures. Nominal GDP is expected to reach $286 billion (€249 billion) in 2025 and $311 billion (€259 billion) in 2026. Per capita GDP is forecasted to hit $30,038 in 2026, reflecting Greece’s gradual alignment with the Eurozone average.

Source: greek city times