Global markets have launched a dynamic comeback over the past trading sessions, clawing back nearly all losses triggered earlier in November by anxiety over AI valuations and fears that neither the Federal Reserve nor the European Central Bank would lower interest rates soon.
After weeks of volatility, sentiment has flipped — and traders are once again pricing in a dovish turn.
A broad global rebound
The MSCI All Country World Index recorded its fifth straight gain on Thursday, narrowing its monthly loss to just 0.5%, despite the turbulence that hit at the start of November. This follows an impressive seven-month winning streak.
Across Asia, equities rose 0.2%, trimming month-to-date losses to 2.2%. Futures signaled a soft open for Europe, while U.S. markets were closed for Thanksgiving.
Bitcoin surged above $91,000, while the Bloomberg Dollar Index slipped for a third straight session — both signs of improving risk sentiment.
Renewed optimism: Rate cuts return to the spotlight
One of the main drivers behind the rally is the reawakening of expectations for monetary easing.
Money markets now price an 80% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points next month, followed by three more cuts by end-2026. Just days earlier, traders anticipated only three cuts in total.
This shift comes despite lingering concerns about stretched tech valuations — the very issue that triggered the early-November pullback. Markets were further buoyed by speculation that a Trump-aligned figure, openly supportive of tighter policy, may become the next Fed chair — a twist that paradoxically reinforces expectations of lower rates under political pressure.
U.S. macro: Mixed signals, but nothing stopping rate cuts
Fresh releases from the U.S. added to the cautiously optimistic mood:
- The Beige Book showed mild price increases and slightly softer employment.
- Consumer spending fell — except among higher-income households.
- Jobless claims unexpectedly declined.
The 10-year Treasury yield stabilized around 4%, following stronger-than-expected labor data. Economists at BMO Capital Markets described the data as evidence of a “mixed” economy — but not enough to deter the Fed from cutting in December.
Forex turbulence: The pound loses momentum
The British pound faces pressure after the UK budget. Morgan Stanley ended its bullish call on sterling, arguing that the currency has “lost its last short-term positive catalyst.” Weak correlations with equity markets and a lack of domestic tailwinds suggest limited upside ahead.
China: Property stress intensifies
China’s fragile property market took another hit after Vanke, once considered one of the sector’s strongest players, proposed delaying repayment of a domestic bond. Shares and bonds of the developer tumbled, while other companies — including Longfor Group — also felt the strain.
The sector continues to be haunted by the long shadow of Evergrande, Country Garden, and years of vanishing sales.
Oil, commodities, and crypto
- WTI crude eased 0.4% to $58.39 as markets digested U.S. diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine ahead of the OPEC+ meeting.
- Gold remained steady.
- Bitcoin climbed over 1%, trading near $91,200.
Corporate highlights
- Anta Sports is exploring a potential acquisition of Puma SE.
- JPMorgan Chase plans a massive new London HQ that may inject $13 billion into the UK economy.
- The Pentagon is adding Chinese giants Alibaba, Baidu, and BYD to its list of companies supporting China’s military.
- Oracle faces rising credit-risk signals due to its enormous AI investments.
- SoftBank’s CDS hit a seven-month high as investor caution grows.
Market snapshot
Equities
- S&P 500 futures: flat
- Nasdaq 100 futures: flat
- MSCI Asia Pacific: +0.2%
- Hang Seng: unchanged
- Shanghai Composite: +0.2%
- Euro Stoxx 50 futures: –0.1%
Currencies
- Dollar Spot Index: unchanged
- EUR: $1.1593
- JPY: 156.18 per dollar (+0.2%)
- Offshore CNY: 7.0782 per dollar
- GBP: $1.3245
Crypto
- Bitcoin: $91,208 (+1.1%)
- Ether: $3,025
Bonds
- Japan 10-year: 1.795%
- Australia 10-year: 4.49% (–3 bps)
Commodities
- Gold: steady
- WTI crude: $58.39 (–0.4%)
Source: pagenews.gr