Trump Wants a Deal, but Moscow Says No – Europe Looks to China

The situation around theUkraine waris becoming increasingly complicated, with Donald Trump trapped in adiplomatic deadlock. Despite weeks of intensive talks, negotiationsremain stuck on the same core issues. Trump’s effort to present himself as the “peace negotiator” seems tostall in shallow waters, as Moscow shows no flexibility.

The U.S. strategy relied on amulti-level pressure plan on Kyiv, aiming for a “quick result” that Trump could present as a personal success. In practice, however,Moscow has given no substantive signals of compromise. The five-hour meeting of Trump’s envoys with Vladimir Putin in Moscow ended without results, and a few hours later, the Russian president made clear that Russia will take control of the Donbas“by military or other means.”

Trump’s Dilemma

The U.S. president faces three choices:

1. Pressure Ukraine for concessions, risking accusations of pushing the country toward a Russia-favorable solution.
2. Withdraw from negotiations, facing personal political cost for failing to end the war.
3. Resume broad military aid to Ukraine, conflicting with his narrative that Europe should bear the main financial burden.

Trump’s public stance has grown morecautious, acknowledging that “it takes two to tango” and admitting he lacks a clear picture of the Kremlin’s intentions. In Washington, senior officials warn thatRussia is playing for time, with the final decision resting solely with Putin.

Ukraine: Kyiv’s Position

Ukraine participates actively in diplomacy to avoid appearing as a“blocker”. President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasizes that any dealcannot be limited to territorial issues, requiring:

• Security guarantees
• Ongoing Western support
• Prevention of future Russian attacks

Meanwhile, outstanding issues includesovereignty, the size of the peacetime army, weapons systems, economic cooperation, and thebroader European security architecture.

Europe Looks to Beijing

TheEUseeks an additional lever of influence on Moscow by turning attention toBeijing. Emmanuel Macron visited China, presenting atriple cooperation framework– geopolitical, economic, and environmental – and calling for a more active role from Xi Jinping in the Ukraine crisis.

Despite warm exchanges and 12 bilateral cooperation agreements, Chinamaintains strategic proximity to Russiaand shows little willingness to applydirect pressureon the Kremlin. Beijing emphasizes the need forEurope to act independentlyand commits to promoting peace, but without concrete measures.

The Big Picture

Washington moves quickly to keep the process alive, Kyiv participates to avoid being labeled the “obstacle,” Europe tests the China route, and Moscowplays for time in its strategic favor.

For Trump, the pressing question remains:how far can he push for peace without “burning” politically, at a moment when the balances of war and the international stage are more fragile than ever.