Golden Visa: Foreign Investor Exit Triggers a New Wave of Housing Supply

The Golden Visa is shifting from a “locked-in” residency play to a major source of housing supply, with up to 5,000 apartments mandated into long-term rentals by 2027, influencing rents, yields and Greece’s real estate map.

Greece’s property market is heading into one of its most significant reshuffles of the past decade. From spring 2026, thousands of homes acquired through the Golden Visa program—primarily by Chinese, Israeli and Turkish investors—are expected to flow back into the market, either for long-term leasing or resale. Alongside them, a second and equally powerful wave is emerging from the conversion of obsolete commercial properties into residential units, projects now being delivered at an accelerated pace.

According to data from major Golden Visa advisory firms, 94% of properties purchased through the scheme were never used for owner-occupation. Instead, they were almost immediately placed into the long-term rental market. Of the roughly 16,000 properties acquired by the end of 2024, nearly 15,000 were recycled into rentals, underscoring that the program has functioned primarily as an investment-driven housing supply mechanism rather than a permanent relocation tool.

Two supply waves, one compressed timeline

The market is now set to absorb new inventory from two simultaneous sources:

• 1,000–2,000 completed apartments already nearing market entry
• By 2027, conversions alone are expected to deliver 3,000–5,000 new homes in Attica
• All Golden Visa properties are legally barred from short-term rentals, funneling the entire stock into long-term leasing

This represents the largest concentrated inflow of residential supply in such a short period, in a market that has struggled with chronic shortages for years.

Conversions become the backbone of the Golden Visa

The increase of the minimum investment threshold to €800,000 for residential purchases in Attica, Thessaloniki and major tourist islands has effectively pushed investors toward change-of-use projects.

Vacant offices, retail units and warehouses—many idle for more than a decade—are being redeveloped into modern apartments, benefiting from lower construction costs and faster delivery timelines thanks to existing building shells.

Hotspots include:

• Exarchia
• Metaxourgeio
• Kypseli
• Piraeus
• Secondary commercial corridors in central Athens

Who is investing—and why

Chinese investors remain dominant, accounting for roughly 65% of Golden Visa issuances. They are followed by:

• Turkish investors: ~6%
• Russian investors: ~5%
• Israelis: the fastest-growing cohort
• Middle Eastern investors (Lebanon, Egypt): typically at the €250,000 level
• US & Canadian investors: smaller but steadily rising share

The common denominator is Schengen mobility, with yield acting as a secondary driver. Owner-occupation remains the exception, not the rule.

Applications unfreeze, market restarts

A recent ministerial decision clarified rules on:

• change-of-use certifications
• listed and preserved buildings
• documentation and permit renewals

As a result:

• 13,499 Golden Visa applications remain pending
• 79% (10,703) are concentrated in Attica

Their activation is unlocking capital that had been frozen for over six months, bringing developers, engineers, contractors and legal advisors back into motion.

What it means for the market

From 2026 onward, the influx of new homes is expected to:

• boost long-term rental supply
• exert mild downward pressure on rents in selected neighborhoods
• reshape investment flows across central Athens

In a market that remains prohibitively expensive for middle- and lower-income households, this shift could mark the first meaningful rebalancing mechanism after years of relentless price growth.

Source: pagenews.gr