Greek Market Out of Sync: Risk Rebalancing and Low Turnover Ahead of Key Announcements

Without a clear direction and largely ignoring international drivers, the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE) closed the session with losses, though its technical outlook remained solid as support levels held. The market experienced a peculiar form of risk rebalancing, with large portfolios reducing exposure through hedging and passive risk avoidance moves.

Session Overview

Major ASE indices opened with mild upward momentum, but sellers took control after 11:00 a.m. The General Index fluctuated between 2,025.28 points (+0.69%) and 1,999.71 (-0.58%), eventually closing at 2,002.91 points, down 0.42% for the day.

Market professionals remain divided:

• Cautious optimists see the market’s stance as expected, given tomorrow’s public holiday and the full operation of international exchanges.
• Pessimists, on the other hand, interpret the session as a sign of weakness, citing the absence of a meaningful rebound after Friday’s correction.

International Drivers

Global sentiment was shaped by the U.S.–China agreement announced in Kuala Lumpur, paving the way for restored predictability ahead of the upcoming Trump–Xi meeting.

This week’s agenda is packed with central bank decisions:

• Wednesday (Oct. 29): Federal Reserve meeting – markets are pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut.
• Thursday (Oct. 30): European Central Bank (ECB) meeting.
• Friday (Oct. 31): Preliminary Eurozone inflation data release.

Meanwhile, U.S. indices (Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq) reached new all-time highs, with Asian markets (Nikkei and Kospi) also advancing. However, Scope Ratings downgraded the U.S. credit rating to “AA-” due to worsening fiscal conditions, while Moody’s revised France’s outlook to negative from stable.

Domestic Market Focus

In Greece, investor attention remains centered on the banking sector and upcoming nine-month results.

• EUROBANK kicks off reporting on Oct. 30, followed by Piraeus Bank (Oct. 31), National Bank (Nov. 6), Alpha Bank (Nov. 7), and Bank of Cyprus – Optima (Nov. 11).

EUROBANK, ALPHA, and NBG are expected to distribute interim dividends exceeding €460 million, while Piraeus Bank is launching a €100 million share buyback program. NBG is also considering increasing its payout ratio above 60%, potentially implementing it earlier than planned.

According to Beta Securities, results are expected to align with forecasts, with room for a stronger fourth quarter as interest rate normalization nears completion.

Total turnover reached €175.5 million, the lowest level in the past 20 sessions, with €163.3 million involving FTSE25 stocks. Bank shares (ALPHA, NBG, EUROBANK, PIRAEUS) accounted for 58% of total trading value.

Technical Outlook and Prospects

The ASE is expected to trade in a sideways range of 1,990–2,045 points for the rest of the week. Maintaining the 1,990–1,985 support zone is crucial to avoid a deterioration in the technical picture, while a break above 2,030 could trigger buy signals targeting 2,070 points.

The FTSE25 index shows support at 2,930 and resistance at 2,980, while the banking index (ΔΤΡ) remains fragile, with key levels at 1,550 (support) and 1,585 (resistance).

The trajectory of banking stocks will determine the overall market direction, as upcoming earnings and dividend announcements act as short-term catalysts. Institutional investors remain selective and defensive, while the mild rise in government bond yields keeps fixed income investments relatively competitive.

Looking Ahead

The upcoming Trump–Xi meeting will play a key role, but the ultimate stance of central banks will determine near-term capital flows into equities. Until then, the ASE is expected to move within a consolidation phase, maintaining technical stability while awaiting new market triggers.

Source: pagenews.gr