Israel’s election campaign is entering a new and increasingly unpredictable phase, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing pressure not only from a stronger opposition but also from fragmentation inside the right-wing camp itself.
A new Channel 12 poll published Wednesday projects Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar! party winning 25 seats, compared with 21 for Netanyahu’s Likud. At the same time, the newly created religious-nationalist People of Israel party, led by retired Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, is projected to enter the Knesset with six seats.
A Channel 13 poll published Thursday showed a similar gap, putting Yashar! on 24 seats and Likud on 19.
Netanyahu’s bloc falls to 49 seats
The most important finding is not simply Netanyahu’s personal decline.
It is the arithmetic of the blocs.
According to the Channel 12 survey, the right-wing camp — Likud, Jewish Power, People of Israel and the ultra-Orthodox parties — would hold 49 seats.
The Zionist opposition — Together, Yisrael Beitenu and the Democrats — would reach 59 seats, while the non-Zionist Arab parties would take another 12.
That leaves Netanyahu’s camp well short of the 61 seats required for a parliamentary majority.
A senior political source cited by Al-Monitor said Netanyahu is increasingly concerned about a scenario in which Eisenkot could eventually assemble 61 seats even without relying on Arab parties.
Ofer Winter reshuffles the Israeli right
The newest variable in the campaign is Ofer Winter.
The 55-year-old retired brigadier general served in the Israeli military for 34 years and launched People of Israel only this week.
Its first polling result is striking: six seats.
The problem for Netanyahu is that Winter appears to draw voters from the same religious-nationalist electorate as Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism, which falls below the electoral threshold in the Channel 12 poll.
Political analyst Tal Schneider cautioned that some of Winter’s early support may reflect the initial excitement surrounding a newly launched party.
“Wednesday’s poll reflects the initial enthusiasm following the formation of the new party, but a lot can change before the election in two months.”
For Netanyahu, however, even temporary fragmentation carries a risk: votes cast for right-wing parties that ultimately fail to cross the threshold could effectively disappear from the bloc’s parliamentary total.
Winter: “There will never be a Palestinian state here”
Ideologically, Winter leaves little ambiguity about where he stands.
At the launch of People of Israel, he declared:
“We are a clear and distinct part of the right-wing camp. We know exactly where we came from and where we are going.”
He then went considerably further:
“There will never be a Palestinian state here. There is only one solution in Gaza — emigration.”
Despite potentially taking votes away from Likud and Religious Zionism, Winter has made clear that after the election his party would support only Netanyahu for prime minister.
People of Israel therefore does not create a likely new ally for Eisenkot. It does, however, deepen competition within the right and increases the danger that some votes could be stranded below the electoral threshold.
Why Eisenkot is now ahead
Eisenkot has gradually emerged as Netanyahu’s strongest challenger.
He founded Yashar! in September 2025 and was not initially regarded as the most likely opposition candidate for prime minister.
That began to change this summer.
A July poll was the first to place his party ahead of Likud, with 23 seats against 21. Most surveys since then have produced the same broad result: Eisenkot’s party consistently outperforming Netanyahu’s.
His appeal rests partly on a political profile that combines centrism with strong national-security credentials — a potent combination in an Israel still shaped by the trauma of October 7 and an ongoing regional war.
The opposition has its own leadership problem
Eisenkot’s rise does not mean the opposition has settled the question of who should lead it.
Yair Lapid has made clear that he considers Eisenkot a political partner, but continues to back Naftali Bennett for prime minister.
“You won’t hear me speaking out against Eisenkot,” Lapid said. “He’s our partner, and we’re going to form a government with him. Bennett should be prime minister.”
Avigdor Lieberman is also promoting his own record in government as evidence that he should be considered for the premiership.
Schneider noted:
“Internal battles within the opposition camp have so far been rather low-key. We are in an election campaign, so naturally each opposition party leader must promote himself in order not to lose voters to Eisenkot.”
That creates a paradox: Eisenkot is currently the strongest opposition figure in the polls, but the anti-Netanyahu camp still lacks an uncontested candidate for prime minister.
Netanyahu changes the line of attack
Likud has already begun adapting its campaign strategy.
Rather than framing the contest simply as Netanyahu versus Eisenkot, the party is trying to portray any alternative coalition as a government dependent on the left and Arab parties.
Netanyahu wrote on Facebook:
“Eisenkot will establish a left-wing government with Yair Golan and the Arab parties.”
The message is clear: Likud wants voters to see the election not primarily as a choice between two leaders, but as a choice between a right-wing government and a broad coalition of change that, it argues, would rely on left-wing and Arab political forces.
The Democrats reject that framing. Former Labor lawmaker Emilie Moatti said the party’s priority is removing Netanyahu’s government and building a broader coalition even if significant compromises are required.
“Netanyahu knows that the Democrats are ready to accept this and work with Eisenkot, Bennett and Lapid. He knows that our top priority is to topple the government and establish a coalition of change in its place, even if we have to pay a high price and compromise.”
Two months that could reshape Israeli politics
Israel’s election is scheduled for October 27.
Two months is a long time in any election campaign — and even more so in a country simultaneously dealing with war, regional instability and deep domestic polarization.
Polls do not determine election results.
But the recent surveys increasingly point to three developments: Eisenkot has become a genuine challenger to Netanyahu, Likud no longer dominates the political landscape as it once did, and the Israeli right is becoming more fragmented.
For Netanyahu, therefore, the greatest electoral danger may not come only from a stronger opposition.
It may also come from having more parties on the right than his bloc’s electoral arithmetic can safely absorb.
Source: pagenews.gr