The confrontation between the United States and Iran risks moving dangerously closer to European territory, with Tehran reportedly examining scenarios for strikes against US military targets in southern and southeastern Europe if Washington launches a major new escalation.
According to the Financial Times, citing two people close to the Iranian regime, Iranian forces have assessed potential attacks on American-linked military facilities in Bulgaria and Cyprus.
The reports do not suggest that Tehran has taken a decision to launch such attacks. They do, however, indicate that Iranian contingency planning now includes options that could push the conflict beyond the traditional boundaries of the Middle East.
Why Bulgaria Is in the Crosshairs
Particular attention is focused on Bezmer Air Base in southeastern Bulgaria.
Bulgaria recently approved the temporary deployment of US KC-135 aerial refuelling aircraft and American military personnel at the base to support US operations in the Middle East.
Sofia has maintained that Bulgarian territory will not be used to conduct direct combat operations. But the decision has already triggered warnings from Tehran, which argues that allowing infrastructure to support US military operations against Iran could make the host country part of the confrontation.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has urged Bulgaria to reconsider its position, underscoring Tehran’s growing concern over European logistical support for Washington.
Cyprus Also Appears in Iranian Planning
More alarming for the eastern Mediterranean is the reported inclusion of Cyprus among locations assessed by Tehran.
One of the sources cited by the FT said Cyprus could become a potential target if the United States launches another attack against vital Iranian infrastructure.
The issue is particularly sensitive because of the British Sovereign Base Areas on Cyprus and their strategic importance for Western military operations in the Middle East.
Tehran has already warned Nicosia against allowing foreign military facilities on the island to be used for operations against Iran.
The result is an increasingly uncomfortable position for Cyprus: geographically close to the Middle East, politically embedded in the European Union and home to strategically important British military installations.
“The War Could Reach Europe”
The message emerging from Tehran is stark.
Iran is reportedly preparing options for a much broader response if Trump follows through on threats to strike critical Iranian infrastructure.
According to one of the Iranian sources cited by the FT, Tehran would impose no geographical limits on its response if Washington crossed what Iran considers a critical red line.
If the United States goes too far, the source warned, Iran could move the conflict beyond the Middle East and strike targets in Europe.
The warning appears designed as much for European governments as for Washington.
Tehran is effectively attempting to raise the potential cost for countries that provide bases, airfields, logistical support or other military infrastructure to US forces.
Undersea Cables Could Also Become Targets
Iranian contingency planning reportedly extends beyond conventional military installations.
According to the FT, Iranian forces have also considered attacks on undersea fibre-optic cables around the Strait of Hormuz if the confrontation escalates further.
Such a move could dramatically widen the economic and technological consequences of the conflict.
The Strait of Hormuz is already one of the world’s most strategically sensitive maritime corridors. Threatening communications infrastructure alongside shipping and energy routes would introduce an additional dimension of vulnerability into any prolonged confrontation.
How Serious Is Iran’s Missile Threat to Europe?
Despite Tehran’s warnings, military analysts caution against overstating Iran’s ability to strike across the European continent.
Sidharth Kaushal, a research fellow at London’s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), described the Iranian missile threat to Europe as “real, but limited”, according to the FT.
Iran could potentially employ medium-range ballistic missiles against US or allied targets in southern and southeastern Europe, but its ability to inflict significant damage becomes more constrained at greater distances.
That distinction is important.
The emerging threat is not that Tehran possesses an unlimited ability to attack anywhere in Europe with equal effectiveness. Rather, military installations on Europe’s southeastern flank and in the eastern Mediterranean could find themselves increasingly exposed if the conflict expands.
A New Red Line for Europe
The broader geopolitical message from Tehran is becoming increasingly clear.
Iran appears to be warning European governments that allowing their territory, military bases or logistical infrastructure to support US attacks could transform those facilities into potential targets.
That raises the stakes significantly for countries stretching from Bulgaria to Cyprus and across the eastern Mediterranean.
Until now, Europe has largely viewed the expanding Middle East conflict through the lenses of energy security, migration, shipping and diplomatic stability. Tehran’s latest warnings introduce a far more dangerous possibility: direct military spillover onto European territory.
For Washington’s European allies, the strategic calculation is therefore becoming harder.
The more infrastructure Europe provides to support US military operations, the greater the possibility that Tehran will seek to erase the geographical distinction between the Middle Eastern battlefield and the European rear.
Iran’s warning is ultimately aimed at changing European behaviour before that threshold is crossed.
If the United States launches another major attack on Iran, Tehran wants European capitals to understand that the next phase of the war may no longer stop at the borders of the Middle East.