GPO Poll: ND at 30.3%, 14.5 Points Ahead of ELAS – PASOK Closes the Gap on Tsipras

New Democracy maintains a sizeable lead in the latest GPO poll published by the newspaper “Parapolitika” on Saturday, September 19, with the findings also highlighting an increasingly fluid contest within the opposition.

In the voting estimate, ND stands at 30.3%, compared with 15.8% for Alexis Tsipras’ ELAS — a gap of 14.5 percentage points. PASOK follows at 13.1%, narrowing its distance from ELAS to just 2.7 points.

The figures are particularly significant because they come after the Thessaloniki International Fair, at a time when the government, Tsipras and PASOK leader Nikos Androulakis have all presented competing economic and political proposals.

ND Holds Above 30%

The full GPO voting estimate is:

• New Democracy: 30.3%
• ELAS: 15.8%
• PASOK: 13.1%
• Greek Solution: 8.9%
• KKE: 8.7%
• Course of Freedom: 4.7%
• Other party: 4.7%
• Voice of Reason: 4.0%
• Hope for Democracy: 3.8%
• MeRA25: 2.1%
• SYRIZA: 1.5%
• New Left: 1.2%
• Niki: 1.2%

The headline figure is the distance separating ND from its rivals. The governing party records almost twice the support of second-placed ELAS in the voting estimate.

The poll does not, however, show a significant post-TIF surge for New Democracy. “Parapolitika” describes the impact of the Thessaloniki announcements on ND’s overall figure as limited.

PASOK Moves Closer to Tsipras

A second notable finding concerns PASOK.

At 13.1%, Nikos Androulakis’ party remains in third place, but the gap with ELAS has fallen to 2.7 points.

That is worth watching because another GPO survey published just ten days earlier put ELAS at 16% and PASOK at 12.8% in the voting estimate. The movements are small and should not be overinterpreted, but the latest measurement places the two opposition parties somewhat closer together.

The opposition contest therefore remains open, with ELAS retaining second place in this poll while PASOK records a somewhat stronger figure.

Mitsotakis and the Question of Governability

The wider GPO findings published by “Parapolitika” also examine leadership and governability.

According to the newspaper’s presentation of the survey, Kyriakos Mitsotakis remains clearly ahead on the question of suitability for prime minister, while cost of living remains a major challenge for the government.

The political importance of that finding lies in the distinction between party support and leadership perceptions: even where voters express dissatisfaction over individual policy areas, their assessment of who can govern the country may follow a different pattern.

GPO Puts the ND Electorate Under the Microscope

Perhaps the most politically interesting section of the survey goes beyond voting intention.

GPO specifically examines the ideological and political currents inside New Democracy and asks voters to assess three figures who have led both the party and the country: Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Kostas Karamanlis and Antonis Samaras.

GPO research director Antonis Papargyris had explained ahead of publication that the survey was designed to decode the political currents within the centre-right and examine who voters see as the principal representative of the party’s values.

That makes this more than another snapshot of voting intention.

It is also a poll about the identity of New Democracy as it approaches the next electoral contest.

The Samaras Factor

The survey also tests attitudes towards the possibility of Antonis Samaras creating a new political party.

This question has become increasingly relevant amid speculation over the former prime minister’s next moves and the potential electoral impact of a new formation to the right of ND.

The published front-page presentation by “Parapolitika” says the findings show strong disapproval of Samaras among sections of the ND base. The newspaper characterises this as a rejection of the former prime minister, though that wording is the publication’s interpretation of the underlying poll findings rather than a neutral polling category.

This distinction matters: the survey measures voter attitudes, while conclusions about their broader political significance remain interpretations.

An Increasingly Crowded Parliament

Another striking element of the voting estimate is the fragmentation below the three largest parties.

Greek Solution and KKE are virtually level, at 8.9% and 8.7% respectively, while Course of Freedom stands at 4.7%, Voice of Reason at 4%, and Hope for Democracy at 3.8%.

Based solely on these voting-estimate figures and the current 3% electoral threshold, eight parties are above that line.

That fragmentation is one reason why the question of governability is becoming increasingly prominent in the political debate.

ND First, but the Political Landscape Remains Fluid

The September 19 GPO poll therefore produces three separate political signals rather than a single conclusion.

New Democracy maintains a substantial lead at 30.3%; ELAS remains second at 15.8%; and PASOK improves to 13.1%, reducing the distance separating it from Tsipras’ party.

At the same time, the poll opens another discussion inside the centre-right: what New Democracy voters believe the party should represent, which leadership tradition they identify with and how they would react if Antonis Samaras ultimately decided to create a separate political formation.

With undecided voters still capable of producing meaningful shifts — something GPO itself stressed before publication — the numbers offer a snapshot of the electorate on September 19 rather than a forecast of the eventual election result.

Source: pagenews.gr