Prorata Poll: ND Holds 9-Point Lead, Tsipras Consolidates Second Place as Karystianou Plunges
ΧΡΟΝΟΣ ΑΝΑΓΝΩΣΗΣ 10 '
Πηγή Φωτογραφίας: eurokinissi//Prorata Poll: ND Holds 9-Point Lead, Tsipras Consolidates Second Place as Karystianou Plunges
This is not simply another poll showing New Democracy in first place.
Prorata’s September political barometer, published by Efimerida ton Syntakton, points to a broader reshaping of Greece’s political landscape following the Thessaloniki International Fair.
New Democracy is not posting a dramatic surge, but it is holding its ground. Alexis Tsipras’ EL.AS. is strengthening its position as the country’s second political pole. PASOK is attempting a modest recovery. And Maria Karystianou’s political project is suffering by far the sharpest decline.
The voting intention figures are revealing:
- New Democracy: 25.5%, from 25% in July
- EL.AS.: 16.5%, from 15.5%
- PASOK: 9%, from 8.5%
- Greek Solution: 8%, from 7%
- Communist Party of Greece: 6%
- Hope for Democracy: 4.5%, from 8.5%
- Voice of Reason: 4%
- Course of Freedom: 3.5%
- MeRA25: 3%
- SYRIZA: 1.5%
- Democrats: 1%
- Other party: 4%
- Undecided voters: 12%
The comparison with Prorata’s July poll suggests gradual political consolidation rather than a sudden electoral earthquake.
Mitsotakis gets no post-TIF surge — but New Democracy is proving resilient
The first major political message concerns New Democracy.
The governing party moves from 25% in July to 25.5% in September, a gain of just half a percentage point.
That is hardly a major “TIF bounce”.
Yet it is equally difficult to describe the result as evidence of accelerating government decline.
And that may be the more important finding.
The government continues to face intense public dissatisfaction. As many as 82% of respondents say Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ announcements at the Thessaloniki International Fair will improve their everyday lives only slightly or not at all.
Just 17% believe the measures will improve their lives significantly.
And yet New Democracy remains nine points ahead of its nearest rival.
The message is striking: dissatisfaction with the government is not automatically translating into support for an opposition alternative.
In other words, New Democracy remains dominant not because public discontent has disappeared, but despite the fact that it remains extremely high.
Mitsotakis’ strongest asset remains the premiership
One indicator is particularly favourable for the prime minister.
When voters are asked whom they trust to serve as prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis leads with 27%.
Alexis Tsipras follows at 16%.
That is an 11-point personal advantage — even larger than the nine-point gap between their respective parties.
Kyriakos Velopoulos and PASOK leader Nikos Androulakis are far behind at 6%, while Maria Karystianou and Zoe Konstantopoulou each stand at 4%.
There is, however, an important nuance.
In Prorata’s previous survey, Mitsotakis stood at 28% and Tsipras at 18%.
They now register 27% and 16% respectively.
So while both New Democracy and EL.AS. are gaining in voting intention, neither leader is enjoying a corresponding rise in personal confidence.
This suggests a political system moving toward stronger party consolidation without an equivalent increase in trust in political leadership.
Tsipras at 16.5%: Second place is beginning to look structural
EL.AS. gains one percentage point, rising from 15.5% to 16.5%.
The numerical increase is not spectacular.
Its political significance is.
Tsipras’ party now stands 7.5 points ahead of PASOK.
That means the contest for second place, at least according to this survey, is no longer particularly close.
EL.AS. is not merely in second place. It is beginning to create meaningful distance from the third-place party.
That changes the strategic question facing Tsipras.
The issue is increasingly no longer whether he can overtake PASOK.
It is whether he can begin closing the much larger gap separating him from New Democracy before the next general election.
The Tsipras paradox: Stronger policy appeal, weaker credibility
The Prorata findings also reveal a politically important contradiction for the former prime minister.
Asked whether the proposals presented at the Thessaloniki International Fair could improve their daily lives, voters give Tsipras a substantially better score than Mitsotakis.
Some 29% say Tsipras’ proposals would improve their lives significantly, compared with just 17% for the measures announced by the current prime minister.
But when the question shifts from attractiveness to credibility, the picture reverses.
Some 38% believe a Mitsotakis government would implement all or a substantial part of what it announced.
For a Tsipras government, that figure falls to 26%.
Meanwhile, 59% believe a government led by Tsipras would implement little or almost none of what he promised.
This may be the fundamental challenge for EL.AS.
It is not enough to persuade voters that its programme is more appealing.
Tsipras also needs to persuade them that it can actually be delivered.
PASOK gains half a point — but the real problem is the 7.5-point gap
PASOK rises from 8.5% to 9%.
That is movement in the right direction, but it does not fundamentally change the political picture.
The party remains 7.5 points behind EL.AS.
At the same time, it is only one point ahead of the Greek Solution, which now stands at 8%.
That places Nikos Androulakis under a very different kind of strategic pressure.
PASOK no longer needs simply to increase its vote share.
It needs to demonstrate that it can re-enter the contest to become the principal alternative to New Democracy.
Otherwise, it risks becoming trapped in an uncomfortable middle zone: too far behind the second-place party to compete for power, but increasingly vulnerable to pressure from parties on its right.
Karystianou crashes from 8.5% to 4.5% — nearly half her support disappears
The largest movement in the entire poll concerns Maria Karystianou.
Hope for Democracy falls from 8.5% in July to just 4.5% in September.
That is a four-point drop in only two months.
In relative terms, the party has lost roughly 47% of its polling strength.
That is not a minor correction.
It represents the collapse of almost half of its previous support.
The result raises a wider political question about whether the extraordinary momentum surrounding Karystianou could be transformed into a sustainable political organisation.
The September numbers suggest that the transition from public protest and symbolic appeal to conventional electoral politics is proving considerably more difficult.
Where did Karystianou’s four points go?
Caution is necessary here.
Without detailed voter-flow data, it is impossible to claim that the four percentage points lost by Karystianou moved directly to particular parties.
The broader arithmetic is nevertheless revealing.
Over the same period:
- EL.AS. gains 1 point
- New Democracy gains 0.5
- PASOK gains 0.5
- Greek Solution gains 1
- KKE also strengthens
The simultaneous fall in Karystianou’s support and gains among more established parties may indicate a broader reconsolidation of the political system.
As the political environment begins to look more electoral and less experimental, some voters who initially backed newer or anti-establishment formations may be returning to more established political choices.
That could become one of the defining trends of the next phase.
Cost of living remains Mitsotakis’ most dangerous opponent
One number should concern the government more than almost any other: 78%.
That is the share of respondents who identify the cost of living as one of the country’s most important problems.
Other major concerns include:
- Justice, corruption and transparency: 44%
- Low wages and working conditions: 25%
- Healthcare: 21%
The message for the government is therefore double-edged.
New Democracy remains electorally dominant.
But the social agenda remains deeply challenging.
That helps explain why the Thessaloniki International Fair has not produced a dramatic polling surge.
The government may be stabilising politically, but it has not yet succeeded in turning its economic measures into a widespread perception that everyday life is materially improving.
Samaras: A political audience exists — but not yet an electoral threat
The poll also examines the potential appeal of a party led by former prime minister Antonis Samaras.
Some 74% say they would completely rule out voting for such a party.
Another 15% say it is not particularly likely, although they would not rule it out entirely.
By contrast, 5% say voting for a Samaras-led party would be “fairly likely”, while 4% say it would be “very likely”.
That creates a theoretical 9% pool of relatively receptive voters.
But this should not be confused with voting intention.
The finding suggests Samaras retains a genuine political audience, particularly on the conservative right.
It does not yet demonstrate the existence of an electoral party capable of commanding that level of support.
The bigger picture: New Democracy first, Tsipras second — and the field below them is beginning to clear
Read as a political trend rather than simply a snapshot, the Prorata poll points to four major conclusions.
New Democracy retains a substantial advantage in the contest for power despite widespread social dissatisfaction.
EL.AS. is consolidating its position as the second political pole, although it remains nine points behind New Democracy and Tsipras himself trails Mitsotakis by 11 points on prime-ministerial trust.
PASOK is recovering slightly, but not yet at a pace that threatens Tsipras’ second-place position.
And Maria Karystianou is moving from the phase of rapid polling expansion into a much harsher test of political durability.
One final number is also crucial: undecided voters remain at 12%.
The electoral market, therefore, is far from closed.
But the first major political sorting-out of the post-TIF landscape may already be underway.
Source: pagenews.gr
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